-
To read my latest article - in The Times of Israel - on the Arab world's take on the new Israeli coalition, please click… View the full article +To read my latest article - in The Times of Israel - on the Arab world's take on the new Israeli coalition, please click here.
-
To read my latest article - in The Times of Israel - on Egypt's second conscientious objector, please click here.… View the full article +To read my latest article - in The Times of Israel - on Egypt's second conscientious objector, please click here.
Posted by Elhanan Miller on 02/05/12
-
On March 11, 2011, Khaled al-Johany, a Saudi religious teacher in Riyadh, was the only citizen to show up in response to a call to protest and demand reform in Saudi Arabia. Many of those who saw al-Johany on TV thought that this public appearance before the foreign media would protect him from… View the full article +
On March 11, 2011, Khaled al-Johany, a Saudi religious teacher in Riyadh, was the only citizen to show up in response to a call to protest and demand reform in Saudi Arabia. Many of those who saw al-Johany on TV thought that this public appearance before the foreign media would protect him from reprisals from the authorities, especially that he defied them by raising the slogan: “The people want to go to prison.”
Unfortunately, “the bravest man in Saudi Arabia”, as many refer to him now, was arrested within few minutes of talking to the media. On February 22 2012, almost a year after his detention, he “stood trial before the Specialized Criminal Court in Riyadh, a tribunal set up in 2008 to try detainees held on terrorism-related charges,” according to Amnesty International, his case was adjourned until early April.
But if Saudi Arabia can’t bear, or even ‘tolerate!’ a call to reform from a single person, how can we justify its unconditional support to the Syrian protesters who are facing death on daily basis, just for mouthing the very demands made by al-Johany? More strikingly, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf States, mainly Qatar and UAE, express their support to the Syrian protesters openly, despite the obvious American and Western hesitation and unwillingness to assume an active role in this direction.
Obviously, this Saudi and Gulf support has nothing to do with protecting human rights in Syria, nor with presumably bad feelings towards the regime of Mr. Assad who was, just a few months ago, a close friend of the Sheikh of Qatar, Prince Hamad Al Thani. In fact, many analysts see the escalating crisis in Syria as a ‘proxy war’ between Iran and Arab Gulf States under the leadership of Saudi Arabia; not over Syria alone, but over the future of the of the region as a whole.
From the Iranian perspective, the collapse of the Assad regime means the loss of their most important ally in the region. A weakened Iran, as a result of this scenario would definitely make it more vulnerable to all kinds of pressures to give up its nuclear endeavours. Consequently, this might lead to the collapse of the Iranian regime itself.
On the other side of this stand-off, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries believe that Syria today constitutes the final battle -thus the most crucial episode- in the prolonged struggle with Iran over influence and hegemony in the region. The ‘triumph’ of Iran in Syria, where it stands so firmly with the regime, accompanied by crossing the nuclear threshold as expected, is most likely to grant absolute Iranian dominance in the region. The devastating outcomes of this situation will not just be limited to a dramatic change in military balance in the region. More importantly, it will be the Shiite local minorities that already worry the Arab Gulf States, whom (Shiite) Iran will try to use to disturb the political stability of its neighboring countries, and therefore threaten their unity.
With such ‘zero sum game’, one might safely say that the Syrian crisis takes the shape and character of a ‘Phony War’ (rather than a ‘Proxy War’) similar to the one that preceded World War II. In other words, regardless of the final outcomes of the current ‘undeclared’ war in Syria between Iran -and Hezbollah- on one side, and Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries on the other side; this war will not remain confined within the Syrian borders.
Therefore, we should be prepared to see other possible ‘Proxy Wars’ erupting between Iran and Saudi Arabia in other countries (Lebanon, and maybe Afghanistan, by using the Sunni-Taliban who recently opened a representative office in Qatar). And this could lead finally to an open and declared regional war that would undoubtedly go beyond the Gulf area.
This article was originally published in Mandag Morden, to read it (in Norwegian) please click here.
Posted by Manar Rachwani on 02/05/12
-
Posted by ICSR on 30/04/12
-
My recent blog post on modern-day slavery and human trafficking brushed upon the subject of the abuse of migrant workers in the region. However, this topic alone is worthy of a blog post.On March 14 2012, Dechasa Desisa a young Ethiopian woman committed suicide after being publically abused and… View the full article +
My recent blog post on modern-day slavery and human trafficking brushed upon the subject of the abuse of migrant workers in the region. However, this topic alone is worthy of a blog post.
On March 14 2012, Dechasa Desisa a young Ethiopian woman committed suicide after being publically abused and humiliated by her employer. News about her unfortunate death filled international and local media outlets, as human rights organisation rushed to condemn the Lebanese government and call for reform of national laws. However, this young woman is one of many migrant workers who are physically and verbally exploited in Lebanon, and this has been going on for too long. There are almost 200,000 migrant workers –from mainly Asian and African countries -and they are not subject to Lebanese labour laws but instead to special immigration laws. Modern day slavery has taken a new and different form and so there should be legislation in order to stop it!The Lebanese government should strive to protect domestic workers and criminalise the abusers by:
• Abolishing the sponsorship law or the KAFALA system
• Conforming Lebanese labour law to internationally recognised labour law
• Ratifying the International Labour Organization’s (ILO) Convention No. 189 on Decent Work for Domestic Workers
• Amending current Lebanese law -which only penalises the abuser with 1 month of imprisonment
• Launching a series of mandatory awareness campaigns in schools in all regions explaining forms of abuse and means to stop or prevent them in their own homes
• Informing domestic workers upon arrival in Lebanon of their rights
• Penalising the “recruitment” companies -which often act as the middle-man between the domestic worker and their employer- when they do not report abuse or carry it out themselves, deny the workers their pay and confiscate personal belongings
• Educate all official personnel who have to direct contact with abused workers in order to handle the cases properly
On Sunday 29th April a parade will take place in Beirut celebrating workers day and calling for the abolishment of the sponsorship law in the hope that the government will listen.Posted by Sarah Kilany on 24/04/12
-
The statements and actions of Iranian clerics and political figures continue to escalate tensions with Gulf States. This has been followed by President Ahmadinejad visiting one of the Emirate Islands which Iran has occupied, further straining these already fragile relationships.But why is… View the full article +
The statements and actions of Iranian clerics and political figures continue to escalate tensions with Gulf States. This has been followed by President Ahmadinejad visiting one of the Emirate Islands which Iran has occupied, further straining these already fragile relationships.
But why is Iran behaving like this? Especially at a time when it is under international pressure and its enemies are numerous! Would it not at the very least not want to antagonise what could be neutral elements in its “cold war” with its traditional enemies?
The current Iranian regime, in attempt to unify its divided people and assert its grip on power, is creating the impression that the Shia population is a target, and is continuously marginalised in the Arab world. This would also explain Iran’s support of the Syrian regime during the uprising and the explicit antagonising of the Bahraini regime - Iran was the first to give the Bahraini uprising a religious cover and is continuing to capitalise on any delay of consensus.
If this is the Iranian regime’s response to tight times, what kind of behaviour should we expect when the regime is more relaxed, and if it reaches a consensus with western states guaranteeing its strength and increasing its power?
To read this article in full, please click here.
Posted by Manar Rachwani on 23/04/12
-
To read my thought on the latest developments in the Egyptian Presidential elections, please click… View the full article +To read my thought on the latest developments in the Egyptian Presidential elections, please click here.
Posted by Elhanan Miller on 20/04/12
-
For those who want to know about my latest project - 10 tactics- and what I am up to now, please click here and… View the full article +For those who want to know about my latest project - 10 tactics- and what I am up to now, please click here and here.
Posted by Mohammad Al Azraq on 19/04/12
-
In his speech on 10 January 2012, President Bashar Al Assad of Syria made it clear that local administration (municipal) elections were held - less than a month earlier - “under very hard circumstances. And because of the security situation, it was natural that this elections not to bring… View the full article +
In his speech on 10 January 2012, President Bashar Al Assad of Syria made it clear that local administration (municipal) elections were held - less than a month earlier - “under very hard circumstances. And because of the security situation, it was natural that this elections not to bring about the expected results”. But, between 12 December 2011; the date of the municipal elections, and 26 February 2012; the date of the referendum on the new constitution, security situation worsened.
Then, why did the Syrian regime insist on organising the referendum on the new constitution?
The most plausible reason could have been the regime’s urgent need to convince Syrian opposition, as well as the international community, that the regime is serious about political reform. Thus, consequently, to use ‘constitutional reform’ as a new starting point towards achieving a political settlement in Syria, especially after the failure of security solution that has been tried for over a year to suppress protests against the regime.
Unfortunately, and according to the articles of the new constitution, such reason/ explanation has no basis. The so-called a ‘New Constitution’ is a mere amendment to the 1973 Constitution.
It is true that the ‘New Constitution’ has recognised political pluralism instead of the leading role of the Baath Party; and prevented (theoretically) President Assad from staying in power after the year 2028! Nevertheless, the ‘New Constitution’ preserves the main characteristics of the political system under the former constitution; especially the absolute power that the President enjoys.
According to 2012 Constitution, and as exactly as it was stated in 1973 Constitution: “The President cannot be held responsible for actions pertaining directly to his duties, except in the case of high treason. A request for his indictment requires a proposal of at least one-third of the members of the People's Assembly and an Assembly decision adopted by a two-thirds majority in an open vote at a special secret session. His trial takes place only before the Supreme Constitutional Court.”Such complete immunity is granted to the President who, inter alia, is “the chief commander of the military and the armed forces,” and the head of Executive and Judicial Authorities. Accordingly, he appoints “civil and military officials and terminates their services;” nominates “one vice President or more and may assign some of his duties to him/them;” appoints “the Prime Minister and his Deputies and the Ministers and their Deputies, accepts their resignations, and dismisses them from their posts;”approves “the public policy of the State and oversees its implementation;” and appoints members (Judges) of ‘The Supreme Constitutional Court’.
In addition, the President can bypass the People’s Assembly (Parliament) at any time and enact laws. Furthermore, the President with his cabinet “may announce and cancel states of emergency”. Also, "In case of grave danger which threatens national unity or the safety and independence of the homeland, or hinders the state's institutions from undertaking their constitutional duties, the President may take quick action required by the circumstances to face the danger.” And he enjoys these authorities without any kind of monitoring or supervision, not even from ‘The Supreme Constitutional Court’.
Taking all this into consideration, how should the new-old constitution be seen? Rather than being perceived as a move towards reform, the 2012 Constitution is actually a ‘preemptive step’ to hinder any genuine reform and maintain the status quo. In brief, the alleged ‘constitutional reform’ is nothing but a ‘reform to end all reform!’ To make it clear, Assad and his regime are getting ready for the worst case scenario, which is a national dialogue with the opposition. Consequently, to prevent any real concessions in the future that might threaten their absolute power; the President and his regime have made these ‘minor’ changes in advance, and according to their own criteria and standards.
At this point, it seems obvious that the main aim of the Syrian regime is to contain the protests rather than to meet real nee of the people. But after more than a year of protests, and thousands of casualties, such fake steps to reform will only be a gamble with the future of Syria and its people, and nothing less!
This article was published in full (and in Norwegian) in Mandag Morgen Magazine. To read it in full please click here.
Posted by Manar Rachwani on 18/04/12
-
Although some of the statements made in the “welcome letter” issued by the Israeli authorities addressed to the activists -who were denied entry at Ben Gurion airport are valid- it is despicable that a government would use the misery of men, women, and children in neighbouring countries… View the full article +
Although some of the statements made in the “welcome letter” issued by the Israeli authorities addressed to the activists -who were denied entry at Ben Gurion airport are valid- it is despicable that a government would use the misery of men, women, and children in neighbouring countries to justify the suffering the government is inflicting itself on the people of Palestine.
It is absolutely true that Israel isn’t surrounded by the best of regimes – there is an absence of democracies, dictatorial rule by monarchies, women’s rights are abused in Egypt, and Syria has been ruled by a single party for more than 30 years and without a single democratic election- but claiming that Israel is the sole democracy in the region? According to what academic definition does a democratic state occupy another? According to what scholarly interpretation of democracy does Israel fall under when families are not allowed to be reunited? When generations of children continue live in the fear of Israeli bulldozers destroying their homes? Israel pointing fingers at the unfair conditions in other countries is getting old- and it is no longer fooling anyone. It cannot keep using the oppressive regimes of its neighbours - or around those further afield - as an excuse to continue the occupation.
However, there is a wider lesson to be learnt here. Something foreign policy makers around the world should consider. The Arab Spring -if it has taught us anything -is that nations need to start practicing what they preach. It only makes their plight for human rights concerns more legitimate.
So let us too stop the blame game and start addressing domestic injustices carried out by our own governments.
Posted by Sarah Kilany on 18/04/12
Introduction
M!ddleEasterners is the ICSR blog. It's a forum for debate and fresh ideas on the Middle East. It features ICSR's Atkin Fellows - some of the most innovative, young thinkers, discussing the region.
Contributors
Posted by Elhanan Miller on 08/05/12